Job postings fall to lowest level since January 2021

Job openings fell more than expected in September. The data comes as investors closely monitor signs of further cooling in the labor market ahead of the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision on November 7.

New data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Wednesday showed there were 7.44 million open jobs at the end of September, down from 7.86 million seen in August and the lowest level of job openings. employment since January 2021.

The August figure was revised down from the 8.04 million open jobs initially reported. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected the report to show 8 million openings in September.

Tuesday’s data also showed that the resignation rate, a sign of confidence among workers, fell to 1.9% in September, from a revised 2% in August.

Meanwhile, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed 5.55 million hires were made during the month, up from 5.43 million in August. The hiring rate increased slightly to 3.5% in September, compared to 3.4% in August.

The data largely corresponds to low turnover, but not to labor market declines, as Districts reported in the Fed’s October Beige Book last week.

“Many districts reported low staff turnover and layoffs reportedly remained limited,” the report said. “Demand for workers has softened somewhat, with hiring primarily focused on replacement rather than growth.”

Tuesday’s JOLTS report kicked off a busy week of labor market data ahead of the Fed’s November meeting. On Friday, the October jobs report is expected to be released. Wall Street estimates that the U.S. economy added 110,000 jobs in October, a significant decline from the 243,000 recorded in September, according to Bloomberg data. Economists expect recent weather disruptions and a strike by Boeing (BA) workers to limit overall payroll gains seen during the month.

As of Tuesday, markets were pricing in a 96% chance that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Nov. 7, according to the CME FedWatch tool.